A Central Florida commercial real estate professional for 40years and an economics graduate, Livingston feels the currenteconomic slowdown may last 24 to 36 months and may be deeper thanmost expected. "The saving grace is that while this is a very badbear market, it seems to be a narrow one," Livingston tellsGlobeSt.com. "The Dow Jones and the S&P Index are not decliningat the same rate as the tech stocks."
The worst bear market was 1973-74 when stocks declined 60%versus 40% today. The average duration for the past nine bearmarkets has been 14 months, the developer notes. "However, thedeeper recessionary period generally takes longer to recover from,"he says.
For example, the 1974-75 recession took four years to bounceback. "Personally, I think it may be 24 to 36 months before we seea new high," Livingston says.
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