The university, based in the city of Orange, says that theweakness in the U.S. job market in 2002 reflected a delayedreaction to the 2001 recession, both here and throughout the restof the country. But the forecast by the Anderson Center at Chapmansays defense spending, international trade and Orange Countyconstruction spending are expected to push job growth from almostzero in 2002 to 1.6%, thereby adding 23,000 net new jobs. Realestate experts say job growth is a key to a healthy apartmentmarket, but it is also an economic linchpin that bodes well for allsectors of commercial real estate.

"While such growth is certainly skimpy by historical standards,at least it represents a turnaround after four years of declininggrowth," the Chapman report says.

The forecast sees the job growth picture as a turnaround from2002, during which Orange County manufacturing employment declinedsharply, with a loss of almost 6,500 jobs or 2.9%. But job growthactually showed some improvement in some sectors during 2002, withhigh-tech and other durable manufacturing sectors losing jobs at alower rate toward the end of the year and the nondurable sectoractually adding jobs.