At its 2004 US Lodging Industry Briefing held at the PierreHotel this morning, Hanson stated that for 2005 PwC predictsoccupancy levels will reach 62.9% and that figure will climb to63.9% in 2006. "We see very strong occupancy performance," headded.

And if history repeats itself, he may be right. In 2002, PwCforecast occupancy levels would reach 59.6% and the actual figurewas 59.2%; in 2003, PwC forecast occupancy levels would reach 59.6%and the actual figure was 59.1%. In addition, on Dec. 11, 2003 thefirm forecast 2004 levels would reach 61.2% and as of today theactual number is 61.1%, Hanson explained.

He attributed the near-perfect forecast to the firm's researchdepartment, forecast model and "some luck." The forecasts do takesome key risks and assumptions into consideration, he explained,like the continuing decline of crude oil prices, the continuingrapid rise of productivity growth, the continuing weakening of thedollar and the continuing increase of rates by the FederalReserve.