Because of a 53-week fiscal year, chains including J.C. Penney,American Eagle and Guess have predicted that some third-quartersales will shift into the second quarter. But recent weakness inmall traffic, and macroeconomic factors such as the slumpinghousing market, and rising interest rates and energy costs alsocould serve to suppress sales, particularly for retailers with lessclearly defined brands.

"We anticipate that the Q2 benefit from the fiscal calendarshift will be modest at best," the report said, "even afterconsidering the benefit from more tax-free shopping events in thisyear's July quarter."

A number of states are offering tax-free holidays in July, whichshould boost sales. In fact, this year will see 23 days of tax-freeshopping, compared with eight days last year. But a number ofmarkets will begin their school years much later vs. the fiscalcalendar than last year, due to the 53-week calendar shift. Thatcould nullify any gains, the report said.