PLACE YOUR BETS ON A NEAR-TERM RECESSION
Pessimistic respondents to last week's Feedback Pollsqueezed ahead of their more hopeful counterparts, with thosebelieving there's a better-than-50% chance of a near-term recessionlogging in at 53%. Commentator Nariman Behravesh, chief economistof Lexington, MA-based Global Insights, does not view himself asinordinately optimistic. (In fact, he points out, his firm "led theconsensus" in predicting the housing downturn.) But he did expressmild surprise at the reaction to the question, and a realisticoptimism does poke through as he weighs in on how deep and wide thecurrent post-credit crisis correction will be. Here'swhy:
"People may be overreacting a bit to the financial turmoil. Itis scary, but the reality is that it's affecting only certain partsof the economy. It doesn't seem to be having a broader impact.Yet.
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John Salustri
John Salustri has covered the commercial real estate industry for nearly 25 years. He was the founding editor of GlobeSt.com, and is a four-time recipient of the Excellence in Journalism award from the National Association of Real Estate Editors.
