Your average economist doesn't forecast recessions -- at leastpublicly. Government economists like the Federal Reserve chairmanwould be open to severe criticism for talking the country into adownturn --creating a self-fulfilling prophecy. Corporateforecasters -- especially those tied to financial institutions --court trouble with bosses if they turn too negative and turn offclients, who might nix new deals or investments over nervousnessabout a downturn. Instead most economists talk in code to protecttheir backsides, while offering enough hints at their thinking tohave it both ways. I'm no economist, but when headlines appear like"Fed Expects Slowdown to Deepen" (New York Times 11/21) and "SlowerGrowth Lies Ahead" (Conference Board 11/21) you know troublelurks.

Then I get a note with on the ground intelligence from a formerhigh-profile real estate investment management CEO whowrites: "My Jaguar salesman and boat salesman buddies inFlorida say we are in a recession as does my cabinetmaker inAtlanta. Check out the number of condo ad pages in NY TimesSunday mag or New York magazine. Venezuelans cannot get moneyout of country -- bad news for Miami. Wait till all the fraudcomes out re. subprime... The sky is falling."

And a neighbor, a partner in a prominent white shoe New York lawfirm, mentions disappointedly that business velocity began ebbingin August. He gossiped that another neighbor whose at another bigname firm wouldn't be making as much next year either. Well,neither of them are bankruptcy attorneys.

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Jonathan D. Miller

A marketing communication strategist who turned to real estate analysis, Jonathan D. Miller is a foremost interpreter of 21st citistate futures – cities and suburbs alike – seen through the lens of lifestyles and market realities. For more than 20 years (1992-2013), Miller authored Emerging Trends in Real Estate, the leading commercial real estate industry outlook report, published annually by PricewaterhouseCoopers and the Urban Land Institute (ULI). He has lectures frequently on trends in real estate, including the future of America's major 24-hour urban centers and sprawling suburbs. He also has been author of ULI’s annual forecasts on infrastructure and its What’s Next? series of forecasts. On a weekly basis, he writes the Trendczar blog for GlobeStreet.com, the real estate news website. Outside his published forecasting work, Miller is a prominent communications/institutional investor-marketing strategist and partner in Miller Ryan LLC, helping corporate clients develop and execute branding and communications programs. He led the re-branding of GMAC Commercial Mortgage to Capmark Financial Group Inc. and he was part of the management team that helped build Equitable Real Estate Investment Management, Inc. (subsequently Lend Lease Real Estate Investments, Inc.) into the leading real estate advisor to pension funds and other real institutional investors. He joined the Equitable Life Assurance Society of the U.S. in 1981, moving to Equitable Real Estate in 1984 as head of Corporate/Marketing Communications. In the 1980's he managed relations for several of the country's most prominent real estate developments including New York's Trump Tower and the Equitable Center. Earlier in his career, Miller was a reporter for Gannett Newspapers. He is a member of the Citistates Group and a board member of NYC Outward Bound Schools and the Center for Employment Opportunities.