Your average economist doesn't forecast recessions -- at leastpublicly. Government economists like the Federal Reserve chairmanwould be open to severe criticism for talking the country into adownturn --creating a self-fulfilling prophecy. Corporateforecasters -- especially those tied to financial institutions --court trouble with bosses if they turn too negative and turn offclients, who might nix new deals or investments over nervousnessabout a downturn. Instead most economists talk in code to protecttheir backsides, while offering enough hints at their thinking tohave it both ways. I'm no economist, but when headlines appear like"Fed Expects Slowdown to Deepen" (New York Times 11/21) and "SlowerGrowth Lies Ahead" (Conference Board 11/21) you know troublelurks.
Then I get a note with on the ground intelligence from a formerhigh-profile real estate investment management CEO whowrites: "My Jaguar salesman and boat salesman buddies inFlorida say we are in a recession as does my cabinetmaker inAtlanta. Check out the number of condo ad pages in NY TimesSunday mag or New York magazine. Venezuelans cannot get moneyout of country -- bad news for Miami. Wait till all the fraudcomes out re. subprime... The sky is falling."
And a neighbor, a partner in a prominent white shoe New York lawfirm, mentions disappointedly that business velocity began ebbingin August. He gossiped that another neighbor whose at another bigname firm wouldn't be making as much next year either. Well,neither of them are bankruptcy attorneys.
Continue Reading for Free
Register and gain access to:
- Breaking commercial real estate news and analysis, on-site and via our newsletters and custom alerts
- Educational webcasts, white papers, and ebooks from industry thought leaders
- Critical coverage of the property casualty insurance and financial advisory markets on our other ALM sites, PropertyCasualty360 and ThinkAdvisor
*May exclude premium content
Already have an account?
Sign In Now
© 2024 ALM Global, LLC, All Rights Reserved. Request academic re-use from www.copyright.com. All other uses, submit a request to [email protected]. For more information visit Asset & Logo Licensing.