It's time to re-invent, go back to basics, and hunker down. Thecredit crisis increasingly looks like a credit crunch. Thedeal-o-rama is over. CDOs look down for the count (although don'twe know Wall Street will resurrect them at some point in thefuture) and no matter how low interest rates go, credit terms willbe much tighter. The sideways economy piles on more hurt --property revenue growth slows or stalls. All the bankers, brokersand other intermediaries should expect "an off year" in 2008 astheir volumes slide.
So who will make money in the New Year?
Folks with plenty of dry powder, cash will be king in anenvironment skittish about leverage. Players who can make deals offmarket with motivated sellers may do better. Some owners willwant to avoid the blackmarks associated with high profile failuresand will quietly take on "money" partners. Everybody is looking forcents on a dollar steals for languishing homebuilder lots.
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