If you are a frequent reader of StreetWise, you know that I amalways following trends in unemployment, and for good reason. Thereis no other metric that more profoundly affects the fundamentals ofour real estate markets.If someone has lost a job or believes theymay be losing a job, they will typically not move into a largerrental apartment or decide to move from a rental unit into a newlypurchased condo or single family residence. If employers arereducing the size of their staff, they no longer need the sameamount of office space. These people watch their spending and tendto travel less. The effects on retail sales and hotel performanceare obvious.The news on the unemployment front of late has not beenpositive. The Bureau of Labor Statistics currently pegs theunemployment rate at 9.8% meaning that approximately 8 million jobshave been lost during this downturn. This rate has more thandoubled from 4.8% just 19 months ago. The cumulative joblosses over the past 9 months have been far greater than during anyother 9 month period since World War II, including the militarydemobilization after the war.The job losses now exceed the net jobsgained over the previous nine years, making this the only recessionto wipe out all job growth from the previous expansion since theGreat Depression. Private sector payrolls today are lower than theywere at the end of 1999.The stress in the job market appears to beunderstated by the BLS as the calculation of unemployment wasmodified during the Clinton administration to make the numbersappear more benign. Nearly 2 million people are unemployed but havegiven up the search for work. If they have not been activelylooking for a job within the 4 weeks preceeding the latestsurvey, they are no longer counted as unemployed.Part time workerswho would prefer to be employed on a full-time basis are also nolonger counted among the unemployed. The number of these"underemployed" workers has more than doubled in this recession toover 9 million, representing about 6% of the workforce.If we addthose who have given up the search for a job and the underemployedto the government's estimate of 9.8%, the unemployment rate jumpsto over 17%. And even this does not tell the entire story.Nearlyevery day we read about additional companies that are askingemployees to take unpaid leave or furloughs. They are not countedamong the unemployed. The average work week for rank-and-fileemployees in the private sector, which makes up about 80% ofthe workforce, has been reduced to less than 33 hours.This is nearly an hour less than it was before the recessionbegan and the lowest level it has been at since the governmentstarted tracking this data in 1964.The average length ofunemployment has now reached 26.7 weeks, the longest time periodsince this data has been tracked going back over 60years.These statistics do not bode well for theadministration's stimulus plan which was implemented initiallyto create 4 million new jobs. After the $787 billion package waspassed and it became clear that there was nothing in the plan whichwould induce job creation anywhere near this magnitude, thegoal was changed to 4 million jobs "created or saved". We allknow it is nearly impossible to prove what jobs were saved.Whenwill these jobs return? Not only do we need to replace the 8million lost jobs but our economy needs an additional 100,000 jobsper month to keep up with population growth. Even ifjob growth returns to the rapid pace of the 1990s,during which we were adding 2.5 million public sector jobs peryear (double the 2001-2007 pace), the U.S. wouldn't get back to a5% unemployment rate until late in 2017. Other estimates are morebullish putting the estimated date at 2014. An estimate which istroubling for the commercial real estate market is thatunemployment is expected to remain above 8% through 2012.Manyeconomists have stated that the economy recently enteredrecovery mode. It is important to note, however, that without jobs,you don't have a genuine recovery. Consumer spending is theeconomy's main driver and without job growth and pay raises,consumer spending will not revive substantially. This isparticularly true because alternative sources of spending power,including home equity and credit cards, are largely tappedout.During the last recession, in 2001, the number of joblesspeople reached a little more than double the number of fulltime job openings. By the beginning of this year, job seekersoutnumbered jobs four-to-one and, today, the ratio has reachedsix-to-one.As the economy gets tangibly healthier, there is a fearthat employers will continue to make strides wringing moreproduction out of fewer workers. Even as demand picks up, they maybe able to hold off on hiring.There is some hope that the jobmarket may rebound more quickly. One thing different about thisrecession is that so many of the job losses have been at servicerelated companies that have come to dominate U.S. employment. Sincethe recession began, 3.3 million service sector jobs have beenlost, a 2.9% decline which is the largest recorded since 1939. Incomparision, the previous two recessions each saw service sectorjobs fall by only 0.5%. Service related firms may have a morepressing need than manufacturers to rehire workers as demand comesback.A key question remains: How bad do things have to get beforethe Obama administration and Congress make job creation a priority?The speed with which the health of our commercial real estatemarket returns may just depend on the answer to thatquestion.Mr. Knakal is the Chairman and Founding Partner ofMassey Knakal Realty Services in New York City and has brokered thesale of over 1,000 properties in his career.