Just back from Peru, trekking through stunning andpristine mountain passes on the way to Machu Picchu where you meetmasses of visitors swarming the remarkable lost Inca redoubt. Peruhas a choice—they can follow Argentina and Chile and protect theirstunning back country wilderness in Patagonia or they can let roadsreplace hiking trails and allow more rainforest intrusions. Alreadyhighly desirable and comfortable lodges have been built along onemajor trekking route, which I traveled. It wouldn’t be hard to turntrails into roads and eventually blacktop, and you hear chain sawshacking into red cedar forests along hillsides. My local guidethinks it’s “regrettably” inevitable that small subsistence farmcommunities turn into hotel tourist stops, and dusty strips ofone-story houses at points along Inca trails transform intosouvenir allies and bars. That’s progress right?
In my hiking group were three Australian couples, all wondering“What’s wrong in the States?” And they all had the obviousanswer—“you need to spend less and tax more.” Well, duh. Soundslike Simpson Bowles. How long will it take for us to wakeup?
More of the same in last week’s jobs numbers—anemic growth,while companies report solid profits. Again, that’s because theycan make more using fewer U.S. workers and relying more ontechnology. It’s not a great prescription for any of the commercialreal estate markets, and the reason why vacancies will stayuncomfortably high. Interesting that private hiring is back topre-2008 crash levels, the shortfall comes in public sector jobsthanks to state and local governments refusing to increase taxes tomaintain services—including teachers and, road repair crews, not tomention private contractor hires for all sorts of jobs. You getwhat you (don’t) pay for.
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Jonathan D. Miller
A marketing communication strategist who turned to real estate analysis, Jonathan D. Miller is a foremost interpreter of 21st citistate futures – cities and suburbs alike – seen through the lens of lifestyles and market realities. For more than 20 years (1992-2013), Miller authored Emerging Trends in Real Estate, the leading commercial real estate industry outlook report, published annually by PricewaterhouseCoopers and the Urban Land Institute (ULI). He has lectures frequently on trends in real estate, including the future of America's major 24-hour urban centers and sprawling suburbs. He also has been author of ULI’s annual forecasts on infrastructure and its What’s Next? series of forecasts. On a weekly basis, he writes the Trendczar blog for GlobeStreet.com, the real estate news website. Outside his published forecasting work, Miller is a prominent communications/institutional investor-marketing strategist and partner in Miller Ryan LLC, helping corporate clients develop and execute branding and communications programs. He led the re-branding of GMAC Commercial Mortgage to Capmark Financial Group Inc. and he was part of the management team that helped build Equitable Real Estate Investment Management, Inc. (subsequently Lend Lease Real Estate Investments, Inc.) into the leading real estate advisor to pension funds and other real institutional investors. He joined the Equitable Life Assurance Society of the U.S. in 1981, moving to Equitable Real Estate in 1984 as head of Corporate/Marketing Communications. In the 1980's he managed relations for several of the country's most prominent real estate developments including New York's Trump Tower and the Equitable Center. Earlier in his career, Miller was a reporter for Gannett Newspapers. He is a member of the Citistates Group and a board member of NYC Outward Bound Schools and the Center for Employment Opportunities.
