Everyone has been focused on Europe and the inability of thevarious countries to agree on much of anything. However, you havebeen looking at the wrong crisis. Although Europe is a majorcrisis, and there is still some question about whether the Euro cansurvive in its current form, the real place to watch and worry hasbeen the mid east all along. Syria is in the last those of collapseinto chaos. Israel is on the verge of attacking Iran. The US andIsrael have stated they are ready to send in special forces to getcontrol of the chemical weapons. Egypt is in a political andeconomic mess. Iraq continues to suffer from sectarian tensionsabout to boil over. With the US gone Iran will surely be directlyinvolved. The Saudis and their allies are intent to get rid ofIran. And through it all the US is nowhere to be found other thanto keep saying now let’s all sit and talk and make nice, whilePutin continues to say nyet. That vacuum of American leadership isnow about to play out into what is very likely an all out warbetween Iran, Israel and very quickly the US.

Just look at the headlines of just this week. Panetta warnsSyria is spiraling out of control. Susan Rice, the US ambassador tothe UN said if Syria comes apart the whole mid east will get drawnin. Iran murdered Israelis in Bulgaria and Israel has vowedrevenge-that means they will kill several Iranians and Hezboullahleaders. The pentagon stated that Iran intends to close the straitsas sanctions cut oil shipments. They will be attacking oilterminals, tankers and the like. The US has sent an extra carrierbattle group to the gulf. We have also been building more missiledefenses and adding a number of our most advanced fighter aircraftin addition to that carrier group. Twenty countries will undertakea mine sweeping exercise in September in the straits. That is anexercise of twenty countries preparing for working together in caseof war against Iran in case you missed the real goal of thisexercise.

The list goes on of things happening in that area, and the risksare ramping up by the day. It is very clear Assad has little timeleft, and Syria is about to collapse in a chaotic mess with massivesectarian civil war beyond what is already happening. That is badfor Iran and their terrorist proxies and Russia who will see thisas a survival issue. Iran will be even more unstable and willlikely lash out thinking it needs to show the world it will fight.Iran is next to go. It seems also clear that someone is noworganizing and directing the battle in Syria. The rebels did notplan and execute that assassination of the leadership on its own.The attacks are now well coordinated across the country. Someone isin control and directing the battle. The end game is now.

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Joel Ross

Joel Ross began his career in Wall St as an investment banker in 1965, handling corporate advisory matters for a variety of clients. During the seventies he was CEO of North American operations for a UK based conglomerate, and sat on the parent company board. In 1981, he began his own firm handling leveraged buyouts, investment banking and real estate financing. In 1984 Ross began providing investment banking services and arranging financing for real estate transactions with his own firm, Ross Properties, Inc. In 1993 Ross and a partner, Lexington Mortgage, created the first Wall St hotel CMBS program in conjunction with Nomura. They went on to develop a similar CMBS program for another major Wall St investment bank and for five leading hotel companies. Lexington, in partnership with Mr. Ross established a hotel mortgage bank table funded by an investment bank, and making all CMBS hotel loans on their behalf. In 1999 he formed Citadel Realty Advisors as a successor to Ross Properties Corp., focusing on real estate investment banking in the US, UK and Paris. He has closed over $3.0 billion of financings for office, hotel, retail, land and multifamily projects. Ross is also a founder of Market Street Investors, a brownfield land development company, and has been involved in the acquisition of notes on defaulted loans and various REO assets in conjunction with several major investors. Ross was an adjunct professor in the graduate program at the NYU Hotel School. He is a member of Urban Land Institute and was a member of the leadership of his ULI council. In 1999, he conceived and co-authored with PricewaterhouseCoopers, the Hotel Mortgage Performance Report, a major study of hotel mortgage default rates.