WASHINGTON, DC—The volume of new-unit delivery through 2015 maytap the brake pedal when it comes to apartment rent growth, but itappears that nothing is going to bring the vehicle to a full stop,at least not for the three or four years. In a report on themultifamily sector, CassidyTurley predicts annual rent growth of at least 2.5% to 5%nationally, notwithstanding projected delivery of 350,000 unitsthrough next year, or double the historic norm.

For one thing, the apartment sector has already absorbed 300,000new units, again, double the historic norm. Demand has exceeded newsupply for the past three-and-a-half years, says the report,prepared by a Cassidy Turley team led by chief economist KevinThorpe.

“So despite fears of overbuilding (from a national perspective),there is a lot of evidence that multifamily fundamentals willremain strong,” according to Cassidy Turley. “New deliveries willpush vacancy up from its razor thin 4.1%,” although not enough tobring it back to its long-term average of 5.4%.