SAN DIEGO—Many different macro events could have a profoundimpact on the commercial real estate market in thenear term. In part 1 of a two-part story, GlobeSt.com spokeexclusively with Pathfinder Partners' seniormanaging director and co-founder Mitch Sieglerabout those events as he prepares to speak on a panel about thesubject during the IMN Forum on Real Estate Opportunity andPrivate Fund Investing in Laguna Beach, CA, this week. Inpart 2, below, we discuss with Siegler how these events couldimpact CRE and how his firm takes these events into account in itsbusiness dealings.

GlobeSt.com: In what ways do you think commercialreal estate will be impacted by the macro events we discussedearlier—and why?

Siegler: In many US cities—like NewYork, San Francisco and Seattle—one-person households comprise 35%to 40% of total households. That has positive implications forstudio and one-bedroom apartments, and we'll likely see moremicro-units (those below 300 square feet) in these cities. We'llsee people bunking up—roommate situations—for two-bedroom units andcontinued strong demand for detached, single-family rental homes.It's clear that single-family rental homes aren'tjust a trade, they're a bona fide asset class. Withinterest rates projected to remain low for theforeseeable future, we'll see more apartmentdevelopment, especially in cities that are supplyconstrained and in markets with limited land or other barriers toentry. Meanwhile, homebuyers are opting for smaller homes—perhapsthe same number of bedrooms and bathrooms, but in a smallerfootprint. All of the above suggests lower US consumer spending onhome furnishings and home décor, another big sector of theeconomy.