For instance, this market's diverse economy gives it a fighting chance of surviving what some captains of industry here are already calling a recession. Although Chicago is the third-largest tech market in the US, tech's presence here is not nearly as dominant as other markets, such as Silicon Valley. While dot-com startups bailed out of Downtown space beginning in the second half of last year, most of the space was absorbed by old-economy financial-service companies and law firms.

Likewise, Texas' increasing diversification will help it survive the latest rounds of corporate cutbacks. The Dallas, Houston and Austin markets also have seen an influx of international companies less reliant upon the US' economic fortunes. Jeff Deweese, vice president and managing director for Grubb & Ellis Co.'s Dallas office, tells Southwest bureau chief Connie Gore that "we're increasing at a decreasing rate. It's slowing down, but the economy's good. Our diversified economy will stay the course." Instead of 100,000 new jobs this year, 50,000 to 60,000 are expected, and "that's very healthy growth," Deweese says.

There are some high-tech jitters in the Southwestern regions--particularly in Phoenix, however. "We're still seeing a lot of building and expansion, and it's not clear how all this will shake out," Jay Butler, director of the Arizona Real Estate Center at Arizona State University, tells West Coast South bureau chief Patricia Kirk. "The numbers don't show anything yet, and we won't see any change for the next few months." With major high-tech companies announcing layoffs, property owners and managers are wondering about future rental and vacancy rates, he explains.

While cutbacks are affecting the financing of deals in the tourism-dominated Orlando market, they haven't stopped deals entirely. "There would need to be huge cutbacks to impact the real estate market in Central Florida," Robert W. Miller, senior vice president in the Orlando office of CB Richard Ellis Inc., tells Southeast bureau chief Alex Finkelstein. "For example, there were more than 40,000 new jobs created in the Orlando area last year; unemployment is around 2.5% which is among the lowest in the state and the rest of the country--these facts help drive growth, especially in multifamily."

Getting financing is another story, though. "We are required more than ever to provide additional in-depth analysis regarding the market base surrounding subject properties being financed and sold," Finkelstein learns from Mark L. Findura, president of R.J. Twitty & Co. II Inc., an Orlando-based mortgage banking and real estate brokerage group. "This is especially apparent in areas that are heavily occupied by large users."

In Los Angeles' Westside, bust-out dot-coms are dumping space back on a market that now has one million sf available. That has pushed the actual vacancy rate, factoring in the sublease space, from 7.2% to 9.95%. The good news: the sublease space tends to be the more creative space with exposed ceilings and concrete floors. However, there is demand from old-economy tenants looking for built-out space, Rick Buckley, senior managing director at Insignia ESG's West Los Angeles office, tells Kirk. "These are real tenants that are creditworthy--the type any owner would be happy to have."

Back in Chicago, the CBD's 8.2% vacancy--one not seen since the 1970s, is climbing, though not nearly enough to catch up to the 12.6% overall suburban rate. Though not a cause for hand-wringing just yet, Rob Marquardt, a senior broker at Cushman & Wakefield's Rosemont office, notices that "Whether you're a start-up or looking to retain current space, expand or renew, there is more deliberation and less urgency involved in the decision-making process. We're also seeing a tremendous onslaught of sublease space on the market not only by dot-com's whose needs have changed but also from established companies that are scaling back."

Buckley tells GlobeSt.com's Kirk he's taking a "wait-and-see attitude" about the Southern California market's future. There still is building and expansion occurring in the market, and the effects may not be known for months. "What building owners were smart enough to do was secure leases with letters of credit, so they're not necessarily suffering from this right now," Buckley explains. "But if market conditions persist and tenants burn through their letters of credit, then you'll see a lot of owners burn."

Instant Insights /

BIG PICTURE: Diversity Will Save Markets From Corporate Cutbacks

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