"Jacksonville shows promise for developers and retailers, as the population is projected to increase another 10.3% by 2009 to more than 1.3 million people," Crossman told about 1,500 members attending the recent International Council of Shopping Centers convention in Orlando. Jacksonville's current population is just under 1.2 million.

For this city, host to the 39th Super Bowl presentation Feb. 6, Crossman's views are balm to an area that frequently loses the development limelight to more visible Florida metros such as Orlando, Tampa and Miami.

Crossman's research shows Jacksonville has a high concentration of young consumers, with 30% of the population in the 25 to 44 age bracket. Those demographics are "forcing retailers to become more creative with their marketing, as the baby boomer and teenage population is not nearly as high as the rest of the state," the Trammell Crow executive says. "The largest employers in Jacksonville are government-related, which lends continued stability to the economy," he adds.

Three retailers "have a large impact" on Jacksonville's economy, Crossman says. They are locally based Winn-Dixie Stores Inc. with a total work force of 7,238, down from 12,000 in August 2003; Publix Supermarkets Inc. of Lakeland; and Wal-Mart Stores Inc. Publix and Wal-Mart operate distribution centers in the Jacksonville MSA which employ 6,800 and 650 workers respectively.

The 11 submarkets that comprise the overall local market have a total inventory of more than 25.9 million sf; an average occupancy of 93.24%; and average asking rents of $14.99 per sf, according to Trammell Crow research.

The submarket with the strongest rental rates and second highest occupancy rate is the Baymeadows/Avenues area, home to the 1.1-million-sf Avenues Mall. Belk, Dillard's, JCPenney, Parisian and Sears anchor this Simon Property Co.-owned regional mall that also rents to 140 other primary upscale merchants.

This nearly 2.6-million-sf submarket enjoys a 97.3% occupancy level with average asking rents of $21.42 per sf. The 1.2-million-sf West Beaches submarket is 98.8% occupied with average asking rents of $18.83 per sf.

Sembler Co. of St. Petersburg expects to open its 109,000-sf Southside Shoppes, just north of the Avenues Mall, by year end. Best Buy, Sports Authority and David's Bridal are the anchors.

Also in this submarket is Crescent Resources' Shoppes at Bartram Park at Interstate 95 and St. Augustine Road. The first phase includes a 44,000-sf Publix, 32,000-sf of adjacent retail space and six outparcels. "Crescent may develop a Phase II on the remaining 12 acres for an additional 75,000 sf of space," Crossman says.

Instant Insights /

Jacksonville Poised for Retail Growth, ICSC Told

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