IRVINE, CA—Residential Realtors often say that homebuyers who close in the fall and winter months to get the best deal. The chalk it up to lighter competition from other buyers in these colder months when families are entrenched in the back-to-school schedule.

RealtyTrac recently took a big-data approach to checking the validity such conventional wisdom, and found the data to be in agreement, but with a few glaring exceptions.

The online data firm analyzed more than 32 million sales of single family homes and condos since 2000, and found that the month where buyers have gotten the best deal on average is October. Of the 2.7 million sales closed in October over the last 15 years, the average sales price was 2.6% below the average estimated full market value at the time of sale. Following October as best months to buy were February, July, December and January — all fall or winter months except for July, which was a surprise given that conventional wisdom would suggest that is a good time to sell but not necessarily to buy to buy at a bargain price.

The worst month of the year to close on the purchase of a home is April, when buyers over the last 15 years have purchased at an average premium of 1.2% above estimated market value at the time of sale.

“The start of the school year and the holidays influence our buyer decisions and serve as a strategic indicator of the most advantageous times for buyers to land their lowest-priced deal,” said Mark Hughes, chief operating officer with First Team Real Estate, covering the Southern California market where the best day to buy at a discount is October 1st. “Due to less buyer competition, October and November typically provide a dip in the SoCal real estate activity cycle,” Hughes added.

Click here to see more about RealtyTrac's report.

Instant Insights /

October the Bargain Month for Homebuyers?

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