Avison Young’s 2018 Mid-Year Manhattan Report: Takeaways for Investors
When asked, “How’s the market?” Avison Young’s James Nelson says it’s a “Tale of Three Markets.”
NEW YORK CITY—For investment sales for H1 2018, there was an uptick in dollar volume of 13% over last year, said James Nelson, the principal and head of tri-state investment sales at Avison Young. Optimistic about the market, he joined the firm approximately five months ago and now has over 30 people in his group.
The company’s Q2 2018 Manhattan market report noted after a strong first quarter, “the second quarter tempered that trend with a mixed bag of results.” The report indicated that for 2018, the transaction count was on track to rank ninth, with a projected $20.7 billion in annual sales, and volume ranking sixth in the past 10 years.
Nelson, one of Avison Young’s panelists reviewing key highlights of the firm’s latest reports, described a “Tale of Three Markets.” He summarized three year-over-year conclusions of the H1 2018 Manhattan market report: (1) Multifamily and office sectors reached a 10-year high in pricing but with a decline in volume of activity; (2) Retail pricing dropped but volume increased; (3) With development, pricing and volume were determined by location.
Multifamily year-end sales projected volume is expected to decline 22% from last year. Pricing reached a high with the average apartment building trading at $1,086 per square foot. Nelson said that in Q2 2018, the average walk-up building sold at $1,440 per square foot, whereas the price was $1,050 per square foot for an elevator building. He explained that because walk-ups generally have smaller apartments and there is greater turnover, this resulted in higher rents per square foot.
The average office price was at $1,027 per square foot, with investors accepting just below a 4% return. “With offices, we are now seeing trades at over $2,000 per square foot in some of these premier locations,” said Nelson. However, with these record prices, volume predictably fell.
Marisha Clinton, senior director of research, tri-state, presented conclusions similar to the Colliers International report on Manhattan office leases. Citing leases of Pfizer, McKinsey & Co., and Latham & Watkins, she underscored how large tenants drove numbers by renting substantial spaces in newer product. She also noted how consolidations can increase vacancy rates.
The H1 2018 report stated retail pricing dropped from $2,620 per square foot to $2,089 per square foot, amounting to a 20% decrease. Nelson said this resulted in returns approaching 5% in Manhattan, which had not been seen since 2012. Sales volume rose 55%, year-over-year, from $1.06 billion to a projected $1.64 billion.
Jedd Nero, principal and executive managing director of retail services, cited the following statistics: The 2018 spring Manhattan REBNY retail report stated the average asking rent for ground floor retail space declined year-over-year in nine of the 17 high-profile retail corridors. Store closures by major retailers reached 4,136 to date, while there were 2,042 store openings. In 2018, it is estimated that 8,000 to 10,000 stores will close exceeding the 7,066 closures recorded for 2017.
To thrive in this environment with high rents and the “Amazon effect,” Nero said retailers need to embrace new technology.
He noted US retail sales are up by 4.5% year-over-year. In addition to more pop-up stores, and rents continuing to stabilize, Nero described how technology will continue to grow as an integral part of retail. Digital signage, real-time inventories, digital menu boards, interactive mirrors, customization and robots are only a few of the ways retailers are making use of technology.
“What we are witnessing in this moment is retail reinventing itself,” said Nero. “It’s very exciting.”
With development, Nelson emphasized with the right location and right product, investors can still obtain premiums for certain kinds of sales.
John Bralower, principal and managing director of capital markets, said Avison Young accesses capital from around the world. “There’s plenty of money out there that wants to be in New York real estate,” he said. Although real estate goes through different cycles, Bralower affirmed his belief in the strength of investing in New York.
You never meet a guy at a party who says he’s glad he didn’t buy anything in New York 20 years ago, said Bralower. “That has been the trend in this market, forever.”