We are heading toward thelongest economic expansion in history, but there are a fewlandmines that could slow, stall or even reverse the growth. “We'vehad a slow recovery followed by an adrenalin shot from the tax cutwhich has extended our economic expansion,” JudyHoffman, president of Trigild and thefounder of the Trigild Lender Conference, tellsGlobeSt.com. Hoffman says that there could be a recession on thehorizon as a result of some of the instability in the market.Unlike the previous recession, these potential economic disruptorsare largely politically motivated.

“It feels like there are more landmines than ever—and much ofthe uncertainty stems from our political climate. I was surprisedto read that 42% of Americans say President Donald Trump should beimpeached and removed from office, which is only one point lowerthan the 43% who said the same of Nixon in a March 1974,” Hoffmansays. “No matter what your politics may be, this tells me thatthere is a large degree of uncertainty in our political climate anduncertainty always gives me pause.”

In addition to the acrimonious political climate, policy changescould also have a negative impact on economic growth. The currenttrade tariffs and potential trade disputes. “I'm concerned aboutthe unforeseen consequences of a trade war and the potentialrestructuring of NAFTA,” adds Hoffman. “Manufacturing a product,and even providing a service, is often interlinked with many othercompanies in numerous countries. Look at an Apple iPhone. To makean iPhone, the manufacturing process encompasses 24 companies thatare in 11 different countries. It's possible that a trade war couldhave a ripple effect and make a greater impact than anyonepredicts.”

Continue Reading for Free

Register and gain access to:

  • Breaking commercial real estate news and analysis, on-site and via our newsletters and custom alerts
  • Educational webcasts, white papers, and ebooks from industry thought leaders
  • Critical coverage of the property casualty insurance and financial advisory markets on our other ALM sites, PropertyCasualty360 and ThinkAdvisor
NOT FOR REPRINT

© 2024 ALM Global, LLC, All Rights Reserved. Request academic re-use from www.copyright.com. All other uses, submit a request to [email protected]. For more information visit Asset & Logo Licensing.

Kelsi Maree Borland

Kelsi Maree Borland is a freelance journalist and magazine writer based in Los Angeles, California. For more than 5 years, she has extensively reported on the commercial real estate industry, covering major deals across all commercial asset classes, investment strategy and capital markets trends, market commentary, economic trends and new technologies disrupting and revolutionizing the industry. Her work appears daily on GlobeSt.com and regularly in Real Estate Forum Magazine. As a magazine writer, she covers lifestyle and travel trends. Her work has appeared in Angeleno, Los Angeles Magazine, Travel and Leisure and more.