The Hotel Industry Is Finally Stabilizing There is growing evidence from many of the people I speak to in the hotel industry that revpar is beginning to stabilize. By late this year it is highly likely there will start to be some signs of small improvement, although for the full year the numbers will...

This Time Is Different Having lived through several major downturns, including the eighties interest rates of over 20%, it is instructive to compare and contrast. This time is very different. While the S&L industry imploded in 1989, the rest of the world was not so affected, nor did the US financial...

Silverton And FDIC Bids The bids are due in about 30 days on the Silverton portfolio. It is mainly hotel loans, and it is only a portion of the hotel portfolio. It consists of whole loans and loans participated out to small community banks. The whole loans are probably reasonable properties with mostly...

Government Interference Delays Solving The Problems   In his latest misguided proposal, Obama wants to halt all home foreclosures until the borrowers have been afforded 5 chances to get a modification. 1. Government interference in the sorting out of distressed markets is never good unless...

New Lending Platforms There is wide recognition that the demand for refinancing and for acquisition debt funding is very large and unmet. It is highly likely that there will not be a large scale securitized lending market again for at least 2-3 years, until a variety of regulatory and legal issues are...

Securitization Was As Much To Blame As Anything I created the first hotel CMBS programs in March, 1993 so I have a lot of first hand understanding of what happened. Low interest rates and high mortgages were not the cause, just the manifestation of the crisis. While many things and people all came together...

The Sovereign Debt Issue Is Being Way Over Played I am not suggesting at all that the PIGS problems are not serious, they are. However, the thing everyone is missing is that the EU cannot allow these minor countries to drag down the budding economic recovery, nor can the US Fed. The European bank and...

Where Are All The Deals Everyone is asking when will the lenders start to sell paper and REO in a meaningful way. The answer is- not for a long time. The problem is twofold. First the banks are so damaged that they cannot bear the hit to capital that a true recognition of current value would require....