NAREIT Panelists Predict Gloom, Fear Investing and Speaker Looks at Election 2000

WASHINGTON, DC-Real estate professionals are heading back to work today after two full days of meetings and sessions at the NAREIT’s annual convention. Held at the hotel most known as being the spot where Reagan was shot, the Hilton Washington & Towers, the convention’s panelists weren’t painting a rosy picture of the future. While jokes were flying fast and furiously, particularly at the luncheon where Bob Woodward of The Washington Post lead an audience participation chat about the presidential race, the overall conference mood seemed cautiously pessimistic.

Samuel Zell, founder of Equity Group Investments, moderated a panel looking at current issues and making predictions. On the impact of technology, Zell asked, “Is this really just a bunch of [nonsense]?” Michael Kirby, co-founder of Green Street, Steve J. Buller, portfolio manager for Fidelity Real Estate Fund, and Jonathan Litt, director of Real Estate and Lodging Research at Paine Webber, all noted the drop in tech stocks. Litt says, “E-commerce is starting to get further a field.”

Zell then asked each for predictions. Gregory J. Whyte, Morgan Stanley Dean Witter’s head of the real estate and REIT equity research team, predicts ” a lot of consolidation.” “ The whole credit community has gone brain dead and doesn’t know how to assess.” Hemel says. “Rising interest rates will cause REIT prices to soften” Derrington adds, ” and the rising price of oil will push rents up. This all doesn’t bode terribly well for REITs.”