X

Thank you for sharing!

Your article was successfully shared with the contacts you provided.

BOSTON-Even though the depletion of inventories may have set the stage for recovery of the US industrial real estate market, a new research paper from Torto Wheaton Research indicates it will take a global recovery and strong growth in global trade for the nation’s industrial markets to enjoy a full comeback. According to TWR senior economist Laura Stone Mortimer, the industrial market will not bottom out till the end of 2010, with demand for industrial space not returning till 2011.

“Whether or not the recession is over, this year’s peak shipping season is likely to disappoint, making businesses unlikely to consider acquiring new distribution space for some time,” she writes in the report. “Currently, there are no signs of recovery in the nation’s supply chain. Times remain tough for the ocean shipping industry and for the rail and trucking industries as well, as most major partners are also trying to recover from the global downturn.”

According to Mortimer, air freight, typically a leading indicator for a recovery in the shipping industry, remains flat. Furthermore, she points out, orders for both back-to-school merchandise and holiday items remain well below last year’s levels. The falloff suggests not only that peak season will prove disappointing but that new orders will not lead to increased demand for distribution or warehouse space till well into next year.

When it is time for a rebound, the economist says, timing will vary according to type of market, with the larger hubs—particularly Chicago, Atlanta and Dallas—turning the corner before port markets. “[T]he recovery will begin there,” she asserts. For the larger port markets, recovery occur only when growth in imports turns positive. But recovery for both hub and port markets is not likely to happen for at least four to six quarters, she remarks. “The rest of 2009 can be written off in terms of a peak shipping season or returning demand for industrial space,” she says.

Want to continue reading?
Become a Free ALM Digital Reader.

Once you are an ALM digital member, you’ll receive:

  • Unlimited access to GlobeSt and other free ALM publications
  • Access to 15 years of GlobeSt archives
  • Your choice of GlobeSt digital newsletters and over 70 others from popular sister publications
  • 1 free article* every 30 days across the ALM subscription network
  • Exclusive discounts on ALM events and publications

*May exclude premium content
Already have an account?

Dig Deeper

GlobeSt. NET LEASE Spring 2021Event

This conference brings together the industry's most influential & knowledgeable real estate executives from the net lease sector.

Get More Information
 

GlobeSt

Join GlobeSt

Don't miss crucial news and insights you need to make informed commercial real estate decisions. Join GlobeSt.com now!

  • Free unlimited access to GlobeSt.com's trusted and independent team of experts who provide commercial real estate owners, investors, developers, brokers and finance professionals with comprehensive coverage, analysis and best practices necessary to innovate and build business.
  • Exclusive discounts on ALM and GlobeSt events.
  • Access to other award-winning ALM websites including ThinkAdvisor.com and Law.com.

Already have an account? Sign In Now
Join GlobeSt

Copyright © 2021 ALM Media Properties, LLC. All Rights Reserved.