The snap audience poll matched the outlook forEmerging Trends in Real Estate 2013 at the report’srelease during the Urban Land Institute Fall Meeting in Denver thispast week. Before presenting the findings of this year’s forecast,I asked the 700 plus in attendance to answer whether they thoughtthe real estate markets next year would be better, the same orworse than in 2012. Overwhelmingly they signaled better, maybe 20%or so “the same” and only a few thought 2013 would be worse.
Real estate players by nature are optimists—they almost have tobe to make some of the deals they do. But if you look at the data,vacancies are headed down across all property sectors, hotels haverebounded especially well, and multifamily has been on itswell-documented roll.
That said demand for office and retail space has been sluggishat best, and gains in occupancies have been helped considerably bya dearth of new construction. Industrial looks like a vigorouscomeback story especially in the leading gateway markets where bigspace users have trouble finding adequate facilities. In thesemarkets we could even see a modest ramp up in development nextyear. But in places left off the new e-commerce orienteddistribution chains—typically smaller, local markets—warehousevacancies will remain high waiting for a recovery in the housingmarkets. In short, the fundamentals present a mixed bag of good andconcerning.
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Jonathan D. Miller
A marketing communication strategist who turned to real estate analysis, Jonathan D. Miller is a foremost interpreter of 21st citistate futures – cities and suburbs alike – seen through the lens of lifestyles and market realities. For more than 20 years (1992-2013), Miller authored Emerging Trends in Real Estate, the leading commercial real estate industry outlook report, published annually by PricewaterhouseCoopers and the Urban Land Institute (ULI). He has lectures frequently on trends in real estate, including the future of America's major 24-hour urban centers and sprawling suburbs. He also has been author of ULI’s annual forecasts on infrastructure and its What’s Next? series of forecasts. On a weekly basis, he writes the Trendczar blog for GlobeStreet.com, the real estate news website. Outside his published forecasting work, Miller is a prominent communications/institutional investor-marketing strategist and partner in Miller Ryan LLC, helping corporate clients develop and execute branding and communications programs. He led the re-branding of GMAC Commercial Mortgage to Capmark Financial Group Inc. and he was part of the management team that helped build Equitable Real Estate Investment Management, Inc. (subsequently Lend Lease Real Estate Investments, Inc.) into the leading real estate advisor to pension funds and other real institutional investors. He joined the Equitable Life Assurance Society of the U.S. in 1981, moving to Equitable Real Estate in 1984 as head of Corporate/Marketing Communications. In the 1980's he managed relations for several of the country's most prominent real estate developments including New York's Trump Tower and the Equitable Center. Earlier in his career, Miller was a reporter for Gannett Newspapers. He is a member of the Citistates Group and a board member of NYC Outward Bound Schools and the Center for Employment Opportunities.
