Patience is a virtue, right? We've been waiting for the recoveryto kick in and demand to pick up. But this spring has not been anupbeat time. What's happening is not subtle and should beparticularly unsettling, especially on the international scene.
Let's start with Europe. Nothing good is going on there. Greeceis headed down and possibly out of the euro zone, but the realworry is Spain—nearly 25% unemployment in the region'sfourth-largest economy. The price tag is too high for a comfortablebailout and the country's banks have begun to teeter, with no wayout from once-booming housing markets into an oblivion ofunsustainable price run-ups and overbuilding (sound familiar?).France wants to do stimulus, but where is the money coming from?The Germans have no appetite to lend more—they understandably thinkany new infusions will go right down a sinkhole. And across thechannel, the austerity-minded UK is already back in recession,essentially thanks to using too little stimulus.
Then let's cut across to the other side of the world and examineChina. For all the hype, I've never been convinced that the Chinesecould sustain their growth. The big construction binge in housingand infrastructure has now entered a hangover mode of excesscapacity. And many of the workers on these projects have now beensidelined.
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Jonathan D. Miller
A marketing communication strategist who turned to real estate analysis, Jonathan D. Miller is a foremost interpreter of 21st citistate futures – cities and suburbs alike – seen through the lens of lifestyles and market realities. For more than 20 years (1992-2013), Miller authored Emerging Trends in Real Estate, the leading commercial real estate industry outlook report, published annually by PricewaterhouseCoopers and the Urban Land Institute (ULI). He has lectures frequently on trends in real estate, including the future of America's major 24-hour urban centers and sprawling suburbs. He also has been author of ULI’s annual forecasts on infrastructure and its What’s Next? series of forecasts. On a weekly basis, he writes the Trendczar blog for GlobeStreet.com, the real estate news website. Outside his published forecasting work, Miller is a prominent communications/institutional investor-marketing strategist and partner in Miller Ryan LLC, helping corporate clients develop and execute branding and communications programs. He led the re-branding of GMAC Commercial Mortgage to Capmark Financial Group Inc. and he was part of the management team that helped build Equitable Real Estate Investment Management, Inc. (subsequently Lend Lease Real Estate Investments, Inc.) into the leading real estate advisor to pension funds and other real institutional investors. He joined the Equitable Life Assurance Society of the U.S. in 1981, moving to Equitable Real Estate in 1984 as head of Corporate/Marketing Communications. In the 1980's he managed relations for several of the country's most prominent real estate developments including New York's Trump Tower and the Equitable Center. Earlier in his career, Miller was a reporter for Gannett Newspapers. He is a member of the Citistates Group and a board member of NYC Outward Bound Schools and the Center for Employment Opportunities.
