Is A Recession on the Horizon?

We are heading toward the longest economic expansion in history, but there are a few landmines that could slow, stall or even reverse the growth. “We’ve had a slow recovery followed by an adrenalin shot from the tax cut which has extended our economic expansion,” Judy Hoffman, president of Trigild and the founder of the Trigild Lender Conference, tells GlobeSt.com. Hoffman says that there could be a recession on the horizon as a result of some of the instability in the market. Unlike the previous recession, these potential economic disruptors are largely politically motivated.

“It feels like there are more landmines than ever—and much of the uncertainty stems from our political climate. I was surprised to read that 42% of Americans say President Donald Trump should be impeached and removed from office, which is only one point lower than the 43% who said the same of Nixon in a March 1974,” Hoffman says. “No matter what your politics may be, this tells me that there is a large degree of uncertainty in our political climate and uncertainty always gives me pause.”

In addition to the acrimonious political climate, policy changes could also have a negative impact on economic growth. The current trade tariffs and potential trade disputes. “I’m concerned about the unforeseen consequences of a trade war and the potential restructuring of NAFTA,” adds Hoffman. “Manufacturing a product, and even providing a service, is often interlinked with many other companies in numerous countries. Look at an Apple iPhone. To make an iPhone, the manufacturing process encompasses 24 companies that are in 11 different countries. It’s possible that a trade war could have a ripple effect and make a greater impact than anyone predicts.”