Research

The good news is that the states and metros hit hardest will generally be among the fastest growing over the ensuing recovery.

Some loan documents restrict amendments impacting financial components of leases such as rent amounts, according to Morris, Manning, & Martin.

Under the scenario Trepp used, the cumulative default rate across commercial mortgages overall will rise to 8%, up significantly from the current 0.4% default rate.

"This suggests the average lease-up time for new speculative product following delivery in Chicago's industrial market is longer than other markets. This lease-up time will likely be extended further by the Coronavirus pandemic and ensuing economic response," Colliers states.

Areas of CRE have been more directly affected, and Placer.ai dove into the data in Washington State to determine to what degree retail is being impacted by more heightened tensions.

At year end, Dallas-Fort Worth continued to be one of the strongest US industrial markets with 25 million square feet in new industrial space delivered at nearly 75% leased, and Houston had 10 million square feet absorbed.

Demand growth expectations at a national level for multifamily could be cut by between 10% and 20%, CoStar says.

Leasing dropped for the second consecutive quarter to 1.9 million square feet in fourth quarter 2019, which translates to leasing activity falling below the five-year average, according to Savills research.