Broken models

One of the open questions coming out of last Fall was how would pension funds approach the looming (now underway) reversal in commercial real estate fortunes. Many observers pointed to the estimated hundreds of billions of dollars of sidelined institutional commitments in opportunity funds just waiting to get into the market at the right moment and cushion against severe value losses. But there was also talk about the denominator effect–where lowered stock portfolio values had increased real estate allocations above targets in consultants mixed asset models. That meant pension funds would need to sell down properties to meet pension consultant formulas just as the market swooned at the edge of a cliff.