You Can’t Play the Cycle

Some version of “where are we in this cycle” has become the most popular question for industry experts. Kenneth A. Munkacy, senior managing director at Kingbird Properties, says that if you look at fundamentals and properly underwrite, it doesn’t much matter where we are in the cycle. Munkacy announced the launch of Kingbird Properties last week at the Urban Land Institutes Fall Meeting. The company will focus on value-add opportunities in secondary markets, where Munkacy says there are still plenty of opportunities.

“The economy has been chugging along at 2% growth. This has been an anemic recovery, and a low-key Goldilocks recovery with not too much and not too little. Cycles don’t die of old age; they die because of exogenous issues and supply issues,” Munkacy tells GlobeSt.com. “Once you get outside of the first tier markets, there is more activity from regional and local investors. I think that it is all relative. On one level, the cycle growth is a lot; on the other level, we haven’t seen hyper growth this cycle. We are stable.”

Munkacy doesn’t have concerns about launching a new investment vehicle late in a recovery, underscoring that investors shouldn’t halt activity because of a lengthy cycle or slowing transaction volume. “The solution isn’t not to do anything. The question is, how do you pivot at this point in the cycle so that you do have more downside protection,” he explains. “We will be going into opportunities with more cash so that we do have downside protection and we will look at projects that have good in-position cash flow. It is time to step back and assess the market, and to look for opportunities that require less cash to meet the yield. At every point in the cycle, you have to make these fine-tuned adjustments.”